SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Plaza Colonia | 22 | -4 | 21 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 21 | -16 | 20 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 22 | -13 | 18 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Fenix | 22 | -2 | 32 |
| 9 | River Plate | 21 | 6 | 29 |
| 10 | Danubio | 21 | 0 | 28 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 35.81%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.14%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (12.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | River Plate |
35.81% ( -0.69) | 30.12% ( 0.3) | 34.07% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 41.8% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.51% ( -0.9) | 65.49% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.77% ( -0.63) | 84.23% ( 0.63) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.25% ( -0.94) | 34.74% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.52% ( -1) | 71.47% ( 1) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.06% ( -0.22) | 35.94% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.28% ( -0.22) | 72.72% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 13.2% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 6.98% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 2.52% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.23% Total : 35.81% | 1-1 @ 13.5% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.41)2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.47% Total : 30.1% | 0-1 @ 12.77% ( 0.34) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 6.54% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.01% Total : 34.06% |
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