SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Rentistas | 19 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 18 | -16 | 16 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 18 | -20 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Rentistas | 19 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 18 | -16 | 16 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 18 | -20 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 46.4%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.67%) and 1-2 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Cerro Largo |
24.91% ( -0.09) | 28.69% ( 0.01) | 46.4% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 41.7% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.23% ( -0.08) | 63.77% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.98% ( -0.05) | 83.02% ( 0.05) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.65% ( -0.12) | 42.35% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.26% ( -0.11) | 78.73% ( 0.11) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.34% ( 0) | 27.66% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.79% ( 0) | 63.21% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.32% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.11% Total : 24.91% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.71% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.47% Total : 28.68% | 0-1 @ 15.05% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 9.67% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 8.31% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.14% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.33% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.65% Total : 46.39% |
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