SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Fenix | 17 | -2 | 24 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 17 | -2 | 23 |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Rentistas | 17 | -7 | 17 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 17 | -15 | 16 |
| 14 | Albion | 17 | -14 | 15 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.91%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro Largo |
35.21% ( -0.26) | 27.88% ( 0.08) | 36.91% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 48.16% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.2% ( -0.33) | 57.8% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.47% ( -0.26) | 78.53% ( 0.26) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.87% ( -0.33) | 31.14% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.54% ( -0.39) | 67.47% ( 0.39) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.93% ( -0.06) | 30.07% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.8% ( -0.07) | 66.21% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.98% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.01% Total : 35.21% | 1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.87% | 0-1 @ 11.25% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.16% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.36% Total : 36.91% |
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