Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 35.44%. A win for Danubio had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.06%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Danubio win was 1-0 (12.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
