SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Fenix | 21 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 | River Plate | 20 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Danubio | 20 | -2 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Penarol | 21 | 4 | 32 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 20 | 1 | 32 |
| 8 | Fenix | 21 | 0 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.51%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (8.56%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
28.15% ( -0) | 27.35% ( -0.02) | 44.51% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.41% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.34% ( 0.06) | 57.66% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.58% ( 0.05) | 78.42% ( -0.05) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.87% ( 0.03) | 36.12% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.09% ( 0.03) | 72.91% ( -0.03) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.22% ( 0.04) | 25.78% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.27% ( 0.05) | 60.73% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.54% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.83% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.22% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.51% ( 0)Other @ 1.93% Total : 28.15% | 1-1 @ 12.85% 0-0 @ 9.31% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.34% | 0-1 @ 12.62% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.71% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 8.56% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.94% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.87% ( 0)2-3 @ 2% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.31% ( 0)Other @ 2.16% Total : 44.5% |
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