SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 18 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 | Danubio | 18 | 1 | 25 |
| 9 | Fenix | 18 | -2 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Fenix | 18 | -2 | 25 |
| 10 | River Plate | 18 | 4 | 24 |
| 11 | Albion | 19 | -12 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 39.11%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (11.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | River Plate |
39.11% ( -0.08) | 28.92% ( -0) | 31.97% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 44.66% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.12% ( 0.02) | 61.87% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.36% ( 0.02) | 81.64% ( -0.02) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.22% ( -0.03) | 30.77% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.96% ( -0.04) | 67.04% ( 0.04) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.52% ( 0.07) | 35.48% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.76% ( 0.07) | 72.24% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 12.86% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.86% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.09% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.6% 4-1 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 2.23% Total : 39.1% | 1-1 @ 13.33% 0-0 @ 10.91% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0)Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.91% | 0-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 31.97% |
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