SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 16 | 6 | 24 |
| 9 | Fenix | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 16 | -16 | 13 |
| 15 | Albion | 15 | -15 | 11 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 16 | -16 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 48.15%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Albion had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for an Albion win it was 0-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Albion |
48.15% ( 0.84) | 27.03% ( -0.5) | 24.82% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 45.86% ( 1.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.58% ( 1.52) | 58.42% ( -1.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.98% ( 1.17) | 79.02% ( -1.17) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.66% ( 1.08) | 24.34% ( -1.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.26% ( 1.5) | 58.74% ( -1.49) |
| Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.62% ( 0.56) | 39.38% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.92% ( 0.51) | 76.08% ( -0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Albion |
| 1-0 @ 13.54% ( -0.36) 2-0 @ 9.57% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.38% Total : 48.15% | 1-1 @ 12.62% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.56)2-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.66% Total : 27.02% | 0-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.38) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.44% Total : 24.82% |
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