SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Fenix | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 8 | River Plate | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Rentistas had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Rentistas win was 0-1 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Rentistas |
39.47% ( 0.01) | 26.61% ( -0.35) | 33.92% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 51.91% ( 1.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47% ( 1.45) | 53% ( -1.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.4% ( 1.22) | 74.59% ( -1.22) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.7% ( 0.68) | 26.29% ( -0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.58% ( 0.9) | 61.42% ( -0.9) |
| Rentistas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.43% ( 0.94) | 29.57% ( -0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.4% ( 1.13) | 65.6% ( -1.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Rentistas |
| 1-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.4) 2-1 @ 8.45% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 3.09% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.26% Total : 39.46% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.45)2-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.61% | 0-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.3) 1-2 @ 7.71% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.13% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.45% Total : 33.92% |
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