SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Albion | 15 | -15 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Fenix | 15 | -1 | 23 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 48.31%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Albion had a probability of 24.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.86%) and 1-2 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for an Albion win it was 1-0 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Danubio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Albion | Draw | Danubio |
24.15% ( 0.51) | 27.53% ( 0.29) | 48.31% ( -0.81) |
| Both teams to score 43.94% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.41% ( -0.62) | 60.58% ( 0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.32% ( -0.47) | 80.68% ( 0.46) |
| Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.77% ( 0.14) | 41.23% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.24% ( 0.12) | 77.75% ( -0.13) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.77% ( -0.66) | 25.23% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.02% ( -0.92) | 59.97% ( 0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| Albion | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 9.22% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 1.22% Total : 24.15% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.57% Total : 27.53% | 0-1 @ 14.32% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 9.86% ( -0.15)1-2 @ 8.74% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 4.53% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.13% Total : 48.31% |
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