Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerrito win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 29.85% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerrito win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerrito would win this match.