SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 16 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | Nacional | 16 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 16 | 6 | 28 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 16 | 6 | 24 |
| 9 | Fenix | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 16 | -3 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 55.06%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 19.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Liverpool | Draw | Fenix |
55.06% ( -0.14) | 25.03% ( -0.01) | 19.91% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 45.65% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.26% ( 0.21) | 55.74% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.12% ( 0.17) | 76.88% ( -0.17) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.77% ( 0.03) | 20.23% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.45% ( 0.04) | 52.55% ( -0.04) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.22% ( 0.28) | 42.78% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.9% ( 0.24) | 79.1% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Liverpool | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 13.82% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.05% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.44% Total : 55.05% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 3.98% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.66% Total : 25.03% | 0-1 @ 7.35% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.92% Total : 19.91% |
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