SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 15 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Nacional | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 46.83%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 25.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.41%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Liverpool |
25.53% ( -0.51) | 27.64% ( -0.14) | 46.83% ( 0.64) |
| Both teams to score 44.8% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.92% ( 0.15) | 60.08% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.7% ( 0.12) | 80.3% ( -0.12) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.32% ( -0.37) | 39.68% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.64% ( -0.34) | 76.36% ( 0.34) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.27% ( 0.39) | 25.72% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.35% ( 0.53) | 60.65% ( -0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Liverpool |
| 1-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 5.92% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.41% Total : 25.53% | 1-1 @ 12.81% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 13.85% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 9.41% ( 0.16)1-2 @ 8.7% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 4.26% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 3.94% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.07% Total : 46.82% |
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