Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.59%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.98%) and 1-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.