SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 39.01%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 33.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Progreso win was 0-1 (10.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Progreso |
| 39.01% | 27.66% | 33.33% |
| Both teams to score 48.56% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.82% | 57.18% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.96% | 78.04% |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.48% | 28.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.7% | 64.3% |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.94% | 32.06% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.47% | 68.53% |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 11.47% 2-1 @ 8.19% 2-0 @ 7.2% 3-1 @ 3.42% 3-0 @ 3.01% 3-2 @ 1.95% 4-1 @ 1.07% 4-0 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.76% Total : 39.01% | 1-1 @ 13.04% 0-0 @ 9.15% 2-2 @ 4.66% Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.65% | 0-1 @ 10.4% 1-2 @ 7.42% 0-2 @ 5.92% 1-3 @ 2.81% 0-3 @ 2.24% 2-3 @ 1.77% Other @ 2.77% Total : 33.33% |
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