SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Boston River | 25 | 9 | 44 |
| 4 | Penarol | 24 | 8 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportivo Maldonado | 25 | 4 | 40 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Montevideo City Torque | 24 | -2 | 26 |
| 12 | Albion | 24 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 | Plaza Colonia | 25 | -4 | 25 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.11%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Albion had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.05%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for an Albion win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Albion |
55.11% ( -0.26) | 26.52% ( 0.2) | 18.37% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 39.74% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.69% ( -0.56) | 62.31% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.03% ( -0.41) | 81.96% ( 0.41) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.09% ( -0.35) | 22.9% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.34% ( -0.51) | 56.66% ( 0.51) |
| Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.55% ( -0.27) | 48.44% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.44% ( -0.2) | 83.55% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Albion |
| 1-0 @ 16.35% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 12.05% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.44% Total : 55.11% | 1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.4% Total : 26.51% | 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.91% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.08% Total : 18.37% |
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