SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Danubio | 21 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Albion | 21 | -13 | 22 |
| 12 | Montevideo City Torque | 21 | -4 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Montevideo Wanderers | 21 | 7 | 32 |
| 7 | Penarol | 21 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Fenix | 21 | 0 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 59.72%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Albion had a probability of 16.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.68%) and 1-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for an Albion win it was 1-0 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Albion | Draw | Penarol |
16.11% ( -0.11) | 24.17% ( 0.23) | 59.72% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 41.68% ( -0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.49% ( -0.94) | 57.51% ( 0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.7% ( -0.75) | 78.3% ( 0.75) |
| Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.53% ( -0.71) | 48.47% ( 0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.43% ( -0.52) | 83.57% ( 0.52) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.89% ( -0.4) | 19.11% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.27% ( -0.66) | 50.73% ( 0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Albion | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 4.02% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.98% Total : 16.11% | 1-1 @ 11.1% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.33)2-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.48% Total : 24.17% | 0-1 @ 15.32% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 12.68% ( 0.13)1-2 @ 9.19% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 7% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 2.9% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.08)0-5 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.67% Total : 59.71% |
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