SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Montevideo Wanderers | 19 | 8 | 31 |
| 5 | Penarol | 18 | 4 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Maldonado | 19 | 3 | 29 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Danubio | 18 | 1 | 25 |
| 9 | Fenix | 18 | -2 | 25 |
| 10 | River Plate | 18 | 4 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 56.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.94%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Fenix |
56.45% ( 0.22) | 25.38% ( 0.25) | 18.17% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 42.16% ( -1.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.07% ( -1.39) | 58.94% ( 1.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.58% ( -1.09) | 79.42% ( 1.1) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.06% ( -0.47) | 20.95% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.31% ( -0.74) | 53.69% ( 0.75) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.33% ( -1.38) | 46.68% ( 1.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.76% ( -1.08) | 82.24% ( 1.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 15.28% ( 0.58) 2-0 @ 11.94% ( 0.28)2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.13)Other @ 3.06% Total : 56.44% | 1-1 @ 11.64% 0-0 @ 9.78% ( 0.5)2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.19)Other @ 0.5% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.32% Total : 18.17% |
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