SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Deportivo Maldonado | 23 | 3 | 36 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 23 | 2 | 36 |
| 9 | Fenix | 23 | -1 | 35 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Boston River | 24 | 10 | 44 |
| 4 | Penarol | 23 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | River Plate | 24 | 9 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.77%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 22.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.47%) and 1-2 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
22.29% ( -0.29) | 26.94% ( -0) | 50.77% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 43.61% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.97% ( -0.22) | 60.03% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.74% ( -0.17) | 80.26% ( 0.17) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.26% ( -0.42) | 42.74% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.93% ( -0.36) | 79.07% ( 0.36) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.16% ( 0.03) | 23.84% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.98% ( 0.05) | 58.02% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 5.28% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.04% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.06% Total : 22.29% | 1-1 @ 12.41% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.18% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.55% Total : 26.93% | 0-1 @ 14.6% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 10.47% ( 0.11)1-2 @ 8.9% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.01% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.26% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0)Other @ 2.39% Total : 50.76% |
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