Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 52.49%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 21.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.87%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Boston River win it was 0-1 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.