Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Sud America had a probability of 30.8% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Sud America win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Plaza Colonia in this match.