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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 46.61%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 25.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.33%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.82%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 1-0 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
25.75% ( -4.57) | 27.63% ( 0.04) | 46.61% ( 4.52) |
| Both teams to score 45.01% ( -2.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.1% ( -2.24) | 59.9% ( 2.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.84% ( -1.74) | 80.16% ( 1.74) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.62% ( -4.93) | 39.38% ( 4.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.92% ( -4.92) | 76.08% ( 4.91) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.25% ( 1.29) | 25.75% ( -1.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.32% ( 1.72) | 60.68% ( -1.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Racing de Montevideo | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 9.45% ( -0.48) 2-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.94)2-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.89)3-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.6)3-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.51)3-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.35)Other @ 1.45% Total : 25.75% | 1-1 @ 12.82% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 10.13% ( 0.82)2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.47)Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.62% | 0-1 @ 13.75% ( 1.57) 0-2 @ 9.33% ( 1.37)1-2 @ 8.7% ( 0.21)0-3 @ 4.22% ( 0.75)1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.23)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.14)0-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.3)1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.07% Total : 46.61% |
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