SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.38%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.02%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 0-1 (8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
53.38% ( -0.13) | 26.08% ( 0.25) | 20.54% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 43.75% ( -0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.28% ( -0.97) | 58.72% ( 0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.75% ( -0.76) | 79.25% ( 0.77) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.87% ( -0.46) | 22.13% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.5% ( -0.7) | 55.5% ( 0.7) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.19% ( -0.7) | 43.81% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.03% ( -0.58) | 79.97% ( 0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
| 1-0 @ 14.62% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.8% Total : 53.37% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.7% ( 0.35)2-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.56% Total : 26.07% | 0-1 @ 8% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.95% Total : 20.54% |
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