Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rentistas win with a probability of 38.35%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rentistas win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
