Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 47.74%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.15%) and 1-2 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a Rentistas win it was 1-0 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Progreso would win this match.
