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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 41.39%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 0-1 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Liverpool |
41.39% ( 0.37) | 27.78% ( -0.03) | 30.83% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 47.47% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.79% ( 0.01) | 58.21% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.15% ( 0) | 78.85% ( -0.01) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.32% ( 0.21) | 27.68% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.77% ( 0.27) | 63.23% ( -0.27) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.64% ( -0.25) | 34.36% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.93% ( -0.27) | 71.06% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Liverpool |
| 1-0 @ 12.21% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.85% Total : 41.38% | 1-1 @ 13.05% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.51% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.78% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.97% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.26% Total : 30.82% |
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