SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.47%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 20.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.79%) and 1-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
20.48% ( -0.6) | 25.04% ( -0.06) | 54.47% ( 0.66) |
| Both teams to score 46.42% ( -0.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.86% ( -0.41) | 55.14% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.61% ( -0.34) | 76.39% ( 0.34) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.19% ( -0.87) | 41.8% ( 0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.73% ( -0.77) | 78.26% ( 0.76) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.77% ( 0.1) | 20.22% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.45% ( 0.16) | 52.55% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 7.37% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.13% Total : 20.48% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.69% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 13.51% ( 0.26) 0-2 @ 10.79% ( 0.23)1-2 @ 9.42% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.75% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 5.02% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.3% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.48% Total : 54.46% |
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