SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.78%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 24.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.82%) and 1-2 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
24.12% ( -0.2) | 27.1% ( -0.11) | 48.78% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 45.04% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.84% ( 0.22) | 59.16% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.41% ( 0.17) | 79.59% ( -0.17) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.55% ( -0.06) | 40.45% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.94% ( -0.05) | 77.06% ( 0.05) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.63% ( 0.24) | 24.37% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.22% ( 0.34) | 58.78% ( -0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 5.7% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 1.31% Total : 24.12% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.86% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.09% | 0-1 @ 13.91% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.82% ( 0.05)1-2 @ 8.89% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 4.62% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.18% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.34% Total : 48.78% |
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