SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Fenix | 23 | -1 | 35 |
| 9 | River Plate | 23 | 7 | 33 |
| 10 | Danubio | 23 | 1 | 32 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Albion | 23 | -13 | 25 |
| 13 | Plaza Colonia | 23 | -4 | 22 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 23 | -17 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 46.75%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 25.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (9.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
46.75% ( -0.91) | 27.85% ( 0.26) | 25.39% ( 0.65) |
| Both teams to score 44.16% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.15% ( -0.46) | 60.84% ( 0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.12% ( -0.35) | 80.87% ( 0.34) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.89% ( -0.66) | 26.11% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.83% ( -0.89) | 61.17% ( 0.89) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.77% ( 0.33) | 40.23% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.14% ( 0.3) | 76.86% ( -0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 14.1% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 9.47% ( -0.19)2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.98% Total : 46.75% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 10.5% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.58% Total : 27.84% | 0-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.34% Total : 25.39% |
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