SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | River Plate | 20 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Danubio | 20 | -2 | 25 |
| 11 | Albion | 21 | -13 | 22 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 21 | -16 | 20 |
| 14 | Plaza Colonia | 20 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 21 | -11 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 35.48%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 35.14% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.31%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (12.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Danubio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
35.48% ( -0.39) | 29.38% ( 0.13) | 35.14% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 43.8% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.88% ( -0.44) | 63.12% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.45% ( -0.32) | 82.55% ( 0.32) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.3% ( -0.49) | 33.7% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.64% ( -0.54) | 70.36% ( 0.54) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.07% ( -0.06) | 33.93% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.4% ( -0.07) | 70.6% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 12.43% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 2.45% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.43% Total : 35.47% | 1-1 @ 13.44% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.43% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.38% | 0-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 7.27% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.68% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 2.62% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.38% Total : 35.13% |
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