Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.43%) and 2-1 (8.2%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
