Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Sud America had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.38%) and 1-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%), while for a Sud America win it was 1-0 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
