Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 37.26%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 36.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
