Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.69%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 25.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
