SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Pontypridd Town AFC | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Airbus UK Broughton | 4 | -7 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Bala Town | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 4 | -4 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 56.58%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 20.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.94%) and 1-2 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-0 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Bala Town |
20.48% ( -5.76) | 22.94% ( -1.66) | 56.58% ( 7.42) |
| Both teams to score 52.65% ( -1.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.14% ( 1.22) | 46.86% ( -1.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.89% ( 1.13) | 69.11% ( -1.13) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.94% ( -4.52) | 37.06% ( 4.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.16% ( -4.77) | 73.84% ( 4.77) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.65% ( 3.25) | 16.35% ( -3.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.04% ( 5.58) | 45.96% ( -5.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Bala Town |
| 1-0 @ 6.01% ( -1.15) 2-1 @ 5.41% ( -1.14)2-0 @ 2.99% ( -1.03)3-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.66)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.38)3-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.52)Other @ 1.68% Total : 20.48% | 1-1 @ 10.89% ( -0.77) 0-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.44)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.94% | 0-1 @ 10.97% ( 0.58) 0-2 @ 9.94% ( 1.47)1-2 @ 9.86% ( 0.36)0-3 @ 6% ( 1.4)1-3 @ 5.95% ( 0.79)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.84)1-4 @ 2.7% ( 0.59)2-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.16)0-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.37)1-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.29)Other @ 2.19% Total : 56.58% |
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