SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Pontypridd Town AFC | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Airbus UK Broughton | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | Bala Town | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Aberystwyth Town | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Haverfordwest County | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 2 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 53.33%. A win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 24.03% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Haverfordwest County win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bala Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
53.33% ( 0.14) | 22.63% ( -0.15) | 24.03% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 58.52% ( 0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.64% ( 0.66) | 41.36% ( -0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.24% ( 0.67) | 63.76% ( -0.67) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.47% ( 0.28) | 15.52% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.56% ( 0.52) | 44.44% ( -0.52) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.28% ( 0.36) | 30.72% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.02% ( 0.42) | 66.98% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bala Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
| 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.14% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.69% Total : 53.33% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.77% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.63% | 1-2 @ 6.19% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 3.32% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.89% Total : 24.03% |
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