Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 52.83%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 23.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-0 (6.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
