SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Pontypridd Town AFC | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Airbus UK Broughton | 5 | -9 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Pen-y-Bont | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Bala Town | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 62.22%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 16.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.08%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-0 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
16.49% ( 0.05) | 21.28% ( 0.05) | 62.22% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 50.68% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.18% ( -0.16) | 45.82% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.86% ( -0.15) | 68.13% ( 0.14) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.03% ( -0.03) | 40.96% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.47% ( -0.03) | 77.52% ( 0.02) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.84% ( -0.08) | 14.15% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.17% ( -0.16) | 41.83% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 1-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.52% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.34% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0)Other @ 1.84% Total : 16.49% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.41% ( -0)Other @ 0.96% Total : 21.28% | 0-1 @ 11.33% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 11.08% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 9.89% ( -0)0-3 @ 7.22% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.45% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.53% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 3.15% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 62.21% |
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