SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Haverfordwest County | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Flint Town United | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Pen-y-Bont | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Bala Town | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 57.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 18.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.89%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Pen-y-Bont win it was 0-1 (6.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
57.78% ( -1.55) | 23.33% ( 0.35) | 18.89% ( 1.2) |
| Both teams to score 48.92% ( 1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.47% ( 0.31) | 50.53% ( -0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.55% ( 0.27) | 72.45% ( -0.27) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.77% ( -0.43) | 17.24% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.46% ( -0.77) | 47.54% ( 0.77) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.11% ( 1.59) | 40.89% ( -1.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.54% ( 1.39) | 77.46% ( -1.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
| 1-0 @ 12.39% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 10.89% ( -0.46)2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.37)3-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 2.55% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.69% Total : 57.78% | 1-1 @ 11.08% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.05% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.19)Other @ 0.84% Total : 23.32% | 0-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.29)0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.04% Total : 18.89% |
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