SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 27.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.69%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 2-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Barry Town United | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
27.14% ( -0.12) | 23.49% ( 0.01) | 49.38% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 58.76% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.52% ( -0.14) | 42.48% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.12% ( -0.14) | 64.88% ( 0.15) |
| Barry Town United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.1% ( -0.16) | 28.9% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.23% ( -0.2) | 64.77% ( 0.21) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.65% ( -0.01) | 17.35% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.26% ( -0.02) | 47.74% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barry Town United | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.8% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.43% Total : 27.14% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.01% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.49% | 1-2 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 7.69% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 5.58% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.49% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.44% 0-4 @ 1.97% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.9% Total : 49.38% |
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