SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
35.49% ( 0.52) | 24.88% ( -0.2) | 39.63% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 58.04% ( 0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.77% ( 1.01) | 45.24% ( -1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.42% ( 0.96) | 67.58% ( -0.95) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( 0.77) | 24.91% ( -0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.47% ( 1.06) | 59.53% ( -1.05) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.29% ( 0.29) | 22.71% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.63% ( 0.42) | 56.37% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
| 2-1 @ 8.1% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.16)2-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.72% Total : 35.49% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 6% ( 0.11)0-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.25)3-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.88% | 1-2 @ 8.64% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 4.27% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.27% Total : 39.63% |
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