SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 45.28%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
30.26% ( 0.33) | 24.45% ( -0.02) | 45.28% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 57.67% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.08% ( 0.26) | 44.91% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.73% ( 0.25) | 67.27% ( -0.24) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.04% ( 0.35) | 27.95% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.41% ( 0.44) | 63.58% ( -0.44) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.04% ( -0.02) | 19.95% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.88% ( -0.05) | 52.12% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
| 2-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.8% Total : 30.26% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.44% | 1-2 @ 9.23% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 4.96% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 45.28% |
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