Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 51.31%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 24.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (7.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
