SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Mexico | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Poland | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Argentina | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Mexico | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Poland | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Argentina | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 45.49%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Mexico had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.88%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Mexico win it was 0-1 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Argentina | Draw | Mexico |
45.49% ( -0.24) | 27.41% ( 0.1) | 27.1% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 46.56% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.59% ( -0.28) | 58.41% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.99% ( -0.22) | 79.01% ( 0.22) |
| Argentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.37% ( -0.25) | 25.63% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.48% ( -0.34) | 60.52% ( 0.34) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.61% ( -0.03) | 37.39% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.83% ( -0.03) | 74.17% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Argentina | Draw | Mexico |
| 1-0 @ 13.04% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.97% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.16% Total : 45.48% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.41% | 0-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.07% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.72% Total : 27.1% |
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