SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Thailand | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Oman | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Kyrgyzstan | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 57.28%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for China had a probability of 19.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.34%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a China win it was 1-0 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Saudi Arabia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| China | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
19.69% ( 0.03) | 23.02% ( 0.17) | 57.28% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 51.18% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.79% ( -0.67) | 48.2% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.64% ( -0.62) | 70.36% ( 0.61) |
| China Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.35% ( -0.35) | 38.65% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.6% ( -0.34) | 75.39% ( 0.33) |
| Saudi Arabia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.42% ( -0.31) | 16.58% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.62% ( -0.56) | 46.37% ( 0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| China | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
| 1-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 5.2% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 1.46% Total : 19.69% | 1-1 @ 10.94% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.18)2-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.01% | 0-1 @ 11.51% ( 0.2) 0-2 @ 10.34% ( 0.07)1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 6.2% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.89% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.78% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.65% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.06% Total : 57.27% |
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