SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 75.2%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 9.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.47%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 2-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hong Kong | Draw | Iran |
9.7% ( 0.83) | 15.1% ( 0.46) | 75.2% ( -1.28) |
| Both teams to score 52.22% ( 1.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.5% ( 0.6) | 33.5% ( -0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.7% ( 0.68) | 55.3% ( -0.68) |
| Hong Kong Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.45% ( 2.14) | 43.55% ( -2.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.24% ( 1.73) | 79.75% ( -1.73) |
| Iran Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.52% ( -0.12) | 7.48% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.13% ( -0.32) | 26.86% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hong Kong | Draw | Iran |
| 2-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.13)Other @ 1.91% Total : 9.7% | 1-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.27)0-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.13% Total : 15.1% | 0-2 @ 10.95% ( -0.49) 0-3 @ 9.47% ( -0.49)1-2 @ 9.1% ( 0.14)0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.32)1-3 @ 7.87% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 6.14% ( -0.36)1-4 @ 5.1% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.22)0-5 @ 3.18% ( -0.21)1-5 @ 2.65% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 2.12% ( 0.13)0-6 @ 1.38% ( -0.1)1-6 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)2-5 @ 1.1% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.29% Total : 75.2% |
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