SM
| Current Third Round Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | China | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bahrain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Third Round Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | China | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bahrain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 74.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Indonesia had a probability of 9.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.61%) and 0-3 (10.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%), while for a Indonesia win it was 1-0 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Indonesia | Draw | Japan |
9.18% ( -0.19) | 16.56% ( -0.27) | 74.25% ( 0.45) |
| Both teams to score 44.34% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.51% ( 0.66) | 42.48% ( -0.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.11% ( 0.66) | 64.89% ( -0.66) |
| Indonesia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.2% ( 0.04) | 50.8% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.79% ( 0.02) | 85.2% ( -0.03) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.12% ( 0.28) | 9.87% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.26% ( 0.66) | 32.73% ( -0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Indonesia | Draw | Japan |
| 1-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 2.66% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.97% Total : 9.18% | 1-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.59% Total : 16.56% | 0-2 @ 13.44% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 11.61% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 10.37% ( 0.08)1-2 @ 9.11% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 7.03% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 6.01% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 4.07% ( 0.09)0-5 @ 2.78% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.88% ( 0.06)2-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.03)0-6 @ 1.07% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.12% Total : 74.24% |
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