SM
| Current Third Round Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | China | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bahrain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Third Round Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | China | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Bahrain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 56.72%. A win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 21.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.59%) and 0-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Saudi Arabia win was 2-1 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Japan |
21.69% ( 1.51) | 21.58% ( -0.13) | 56.72% ( -1.37) |
| Both teams to score 59.09% ( 2.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.8% ( 2.64) | 39.2% ( -2.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.47% ( 2.71) | 61.53% ( -2.7) |
| Saudi Arabia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.46% ( 2.93) | 31.54% ( -2.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.06% ( 3.25) | 67.93% ( -3.24) |
| Japan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.31% ( 0.45) | 13.69% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.09% ( 0.88) | 40.91% ( -0.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Japan |
| 2-1 @ 5.72% ( 0.31) 1-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.21)2-0 @ 2.87% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.28)3-2 @ 2.19% ( 0.31)3-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.63% Total : 21.69% | 1-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0.39)0-0 @ 4.32% ( -0.55)3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.22)Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.58% | 1-2 @ 9.85% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.95)0-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.79)1-3 @ 6.53% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 5.66% ( -0.42)2-3 @ 3.77% ( 0.32)1-4 @ 3.25% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 2.81% ( -0.16)2-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.19)1-5 @ 1.29% ( 0.05)0-5 @ 1.12% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.45% Total : 56.72% |
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