SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 52.33%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Lebanon had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.52%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Lebanon win it was 1-0 (8%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lebanon | Draw | Australia |
21.7% ( -0.51) | 25.96% ( -0.37) | 52.33% ( 0.88) |
| Both teams to score 45.5% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.8% ( 0.84) | 57.2% ( -0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.94% ( 0.66) | 78.06% ( -0.66) |
| Lebanon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.29% ( -0.04) | 41.71% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.82% ( -0.03) | 78.18% ( 0.03) |
| Australia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.05% ( 0.73) | 21.94% ( -0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.77% ( 1.1) | 55.23% ( -1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lebanon | Draw | Australia |
| 1-0 @ 8% ( -0.27) 2-1 @ 5.31% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.15% Total : 21.7% | 1-1 @ 12.13% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 9.15% ( -0.3)2-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.65% Total : 25.95% | 0-1 @ 13.88% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 10.52% ( 0.12)1-2 @ 9.21% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 5.32% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 4.65% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.93% Total : 52.33% |
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