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Asian Cup | Group Stage
Jan 22, 2024 at 3pm UK
Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium
LN

Tajikistan
2 - 1
Lebanon

Umarbaev (80'), Khamrokulov (90+2')
Jurabaev (27'), Panshanbe (90+7'), Khayloev (90+12')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Jradi (47')
Matar (77'), Al Zain (90+4')
Al Zein (56')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Tajikistan 0-1 Qatar
Wednesday, January 17 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup
All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Lebanon 0-0 China
Wednesday, January 17 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

We said: Tajikistan 1-1 Lebanon

While we expect a greater sense of urgency from both sides in this match, given the stakes, it is difficult to envision either having a decisive attacking edge. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.

Result
TajikistanDrawLebanon
38.49% (-9.096 -9.1) 28.09% (1.276 1.28) 33.41% (7.821 7.82)
Both teams to score 47.29% (0.219 0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.23% (-1.585 -1.59)58.77% (1.586 1.59)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.71% (-1.249 -1.25)79.3% (1.25 1.25)
Tajikistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.4% (-5.533 -5.53)29.6% (5.534 5.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.37% (-7.289 -7.29)65.63% (7.288 7.29)
Lebanon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.18% (5.185 5.19)32.82% (-5.186 -5.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.61% (5.385 5.39)69.39% (-5.384 -5.38)
Score Analysis
    Tajikistan 38.49%
    Lebanon 33.41%
    Draw 28.09%
TajikistanDrawLebanon
1-0 @ 11.82% (-1.2 -1.2)
2-1 @ 8.02% (-0.955 -0.96)
2-0 @ 7.2% (-2.079 -2.08)
3-1 @ 3.26% (-1.006 -1.01)
3-0 @ 2.92% (-1.483 -1.48)
3-2 @ 1.81% (-0.248 -0.25)
4-1 @ 0.99% (-0.526 -0.53)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 38.49%
1-1 @ 13.17% (0.57 0.57)
0-0 @ 9.72% (0.568 0.57)
2-2 @ 4.47% (0.126 0.13)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 28.09%
0-1 @ 10.82% (1.971 1.97)
1-2 @ 7.34% (1.243 1.24)
0-2 @ 6.03% (1.749 1.75)
1-3 @ 2.73% (0.759 0.76)
0-3 @ 2.24% (0.859 0.86)
2-3 @ 1.66% (0.259 0.26)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 33.41%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Tajikistan 0-1 Qatar
Wednesday, January 17 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: China 0-0 Tajikistan
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Hong Kong 1-2 Tajikistan
Thursday, January 4 at 12pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Pakistan 1-6 Tajikistan
Tuesday, November 21 at 9am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Tajikistan 1-1 Jordan
Thursday, November 16 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Malaysia 0-2 Tajikistan
Tuesday, October 17 at 2pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Lebanon 0-0 China
Wednesday, January 17 at 11.30am in Asian Cup
Last Game: Qatar 3-0 Lebanon
Friday, January 12 at 4pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-0 Lebanon
Thursday, January 4 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Lebanon 2-1 Jordan
Thursday, December 28 at 12pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Bangladesh 1-1 Lebanon
Tuesday, November 21 at 11.45am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Lebanon 0-0 Palestine
Thursday, November 16 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia


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