SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 76.16%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Fiji had a probability of 8.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.29%) and 3-0 (10.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.4%), while for a Fiji win it was 0-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Zealand | Draw | Fiji |
76.16% ( 3.04) | 15.57% ( -1.71) | 8.26% ( -1.34) |
| Both teams to score 43.7% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.94% ( 3.4) | 41.05% ( -3.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.55% ( 3.38) | 63.45% ( -3.38) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.94% ( 1.62) | 9.05% ( -1.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 69.2% ( 3.77) | 30.8% ( -3.77) |
| Fiji Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.05% ( -0.74) | 51.94% ( 0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 14.03% ( -0.49) | 85.97% ( 0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Zealand | Draw | Fiji |
| 2-0 @ 13.56% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 11.29% ( -0.94)3-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.66)2-1 @ 8.89% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 7.12% ( 0.29)4-0 @ 6.52% ( 0.82)4-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.45)5-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.58)3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.35)4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.12)6-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.3)Other @ 3.47% Total : 76.15% | 1-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.79) 0-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.77)2-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.56% Total : 15.57% | 0-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.58) 1-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.32)0-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.22)Other @ 1.75% Total : 8.26% |
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